Different ways to write your name on paper
Tuesday, August 25, 2020
Intro to Rh Bill Free Essays
People are normally conceived represented with laws and thatââ¬â¢s what we call the common law. What's more, as we, people develop to turn out to be progressively savvy, we created our own laws and rules to oversee our lives for better quality and control. Yet, at times, there are laws or advocates that have increased various perspectives among us with regards to its need, worth, and profound quality. We will compose a custom article test on Introduction to Rh Bill or on the other hand any comparative point just for you Request Now One of these is the Reproductive Health Bill. Practically longer than 10 years has gone since the Reproductive Health Bill in the Philippines was just because proposed, since the compatibility of the bill has picked up its resurrection, still it has become a piece of the national discussion achieving a more extensive division. The Reproductive Health Bill, prominently known as the RH Bill, is a Philippine bill meaning to ensure all inclusive access to techniques and data on conception prevention and maternal consideration. While there is general understanding about its arrangements on maternal and kid wellbeing, there is incredible discussion on its key suggestion that the Filipino citizen and the private part will support and embrace across the board dispersion of family arranging gadgets besides, 81% Filipinos are Catholics, the Catholic Church applies a solid impact in open life. Its resolute of resistance to the bill has gotten under the skin of non-Catholics and Catholics the same who bolster the bill, and they summon the guideline of division of chapel and state to stop the congregation. Entry or non-section of the bill has negative ramifications relying upon the perspectives. Instructions to refer to Intro to Rh Bill, Essay models
Saturday, August 22, 2020
The Name of the Rose; Movie vs Essay Essays
The Name of the Rose; Movie versus Essay Essays The Name of the Rose; Movie versus Essay Paper The Name of the Rose; Movie versus Essay Paper Contrasts from the film to the book can have a colossal effect in a pyro-crimes viewpoint toward It; on the off chance that the plot has radical changes, at that point the film is once in a while superior to the book. Set in 1327, The Name of the Rose by Umber Echo will catch your eye from the main sentence and keep you engaged all through the novel. The film, which Is Introduced as a palimpsest of Umber ECHO epic has numerous disadvantages from making It as stupendous as the novel Itself. The Name of the Rose has two principle characters, William of Basketballs and Dads of Milk. Fathers is the principal character to be presented, yet it is Dads later on calling the occasions of William and his six days spent at the Abbey. William and Dads are brought to the Abbey to take part in a discussion with an ecclesiastical legation over the destitution of Christ just as the status of the Franciscan request. In any case, upon their appearance, Addled, a youthful artist of the compositions, had been killed and they are approached to help examine the wrongdoing. During petition the following morning, another body is found; Venetians, a youthful interpreter of the original copies, was found in a tank of pigs blood. William and Dads start searching for a book that they accept both Addled and Venusians were perusing. The main individuals permitted in the library are the administrator and his colleague, which makes the Investigation significantly harder. Bernard, the bookkeepers associate, disappears on the third day. Proceeding with the Investigations, William interprets a code that Venetians had deserted, which will help William and Dads get further into the library. On the fourth day, they found the Finis African, which is where they accept the book is covered up. The fifth day Severing, the cultivator of the Abbey, was discovered dead and the book that William had believed him tit has been taken. Malachite, the main curator of the Abbey, is accused for the taking of the book. After Malachite kicked the bucket in petition on the 6th day, it appeared just as William would settle the case, however the abbot at that point educated him that he didn't need him researching the violations of the Abbey any longer. William and Dads discover Jorge, a visually impaired older priest who knows a lot about books and the library, with the book In the Falls African and found reality behind the entirety of the homicides. Jorge wouldn't leave the book alone read by anyone and ate the entirety of the noxious pages, thumped over a light and lit the library on fire. At the point when the library lit on fire, there was little trust in the Abbey ever being as appreciated as it once had been (The Name AT ten Rose). At the point when a book is made into a film, there are consistently subtleties of the plot that are changed. The movie The Name of the Rose, coordinated by Jean Jacques Unhand, has a comparative plot as the novel yet emits distinctive impact. As said by David Wisteria, While the novel was a fantastic and complex puzzle that enlivened the acumen, the film is a wonderful and complex secret that rouses acid reflux (Wisteria). This announcement clarifies the distinction of films and books; Books can give more top to bottom insights concerning the characters, setting, and feelings while motion pictures make an image to see the subtleties. I for one like perusing books better than watching motion pictures due to the detail the books give. In the book, Dads of Milk is a Benedictine beginner while in the film he is a Franciscan amateur; the entire story can be modified when changes in the plot are made. With the novel being protracted, it is difficult to fit each and every occasion into a film without it being numerous hours long. One pivot that was removed of the film is a long dream that Dads had towards the finish of the 6th day. Something else that is outdated from the film is the means by which the Abbot unmistakably doles out William to be the examiner of the homicides that have been occurring in the Abbey and the Abbot discloses to William that the troublesome is taboo around evening time. I think realizing that William is accountable for the homicide case is vital to understanding the plot, yet on the off chance that that isn't appeared in the film it might be hard for certain watchers to comprehend what's going on until the film advances. To help decrease the Engel of the film, the primary characters conversations about the timespan and blasphemers was radically chopped down; likewise exchange concerning parody and religion is nonexistent in the film. Little changes like these can change the significant impact of a story and it can at times even change the entire story itself. The Abbot himself is a peculiar character, both in the film and the book. He never appears to recognize what is genuinely going on, and he appears to change sides of the homicide cases all through the story. In the book, the Abbot turns into the 6th casualty by Jorge catching him in an ethereal, eventually choking out him to death; in the film, the Abbot Just quits creation appearances. There could be numerous reasons why the Abbot Just quits showing up in the film: cash costs, the film would have been too long to even consider making him a casualty additionally, or the entertainer himself had medical issues. Another character that never at any point shows up in the film is Benny of Pascal. Benny was likewise a suspect in the homicides and even aided William and Dads in the examination for a brief timeframe. As the library is consuming, Benny is suspected to bite the dust from running in and having he floor of the library breakdown. Jorge is another character who keeps things fascinating. The historical backdrop of the Abbey curators, who generally become Abbots later on, is removed of the film. By removing the historical backdrop of the bookkeepers and the historical backdrop of how Jorge was picked for this position, Gorges inspiration for vengeance is chopped down definitely. Canyons discourse that is given in the book about the end times and the destruction of the Abbey in view of its quest for information is chopped down to just an outcry in the film, due too frenzy of Malachites demise. The most striking change room the novel to the film was the closure. In the novel, Bernard Gut, a Judge in the Inquisition, doesn't pass on and he takes Remixing, the cellarer of the Abbey, Salvatore, individual from a shocking faction, and a laborer young lady, from the town underneath the religious community, with him and his escorts. Remixing is taken to Avignon, which is the seat AT ten pope, Tort Nils preliminary Detour en Is Turned. Ass tan Bernard Gull will consume the young lady in transit and that Salvatore, who is pardoned, could conceivably be scorched too. The film has Remixing and Salvatore being scorched at the stakes by Bernard Gut. Bernard Gui is then slaughtered by the laborers and can't consume the young lady, who evades during all the bedlam of the library consuming (The Name of the Rose). Not set out to satisfy an immense horde of book purchasers, Umber Echo composed The Name of the Rose to entertain him with a story of chapel legislative issues and murder. As Said by Peter Burke from History Today, The Name of the Rose merits perusing for the strict sense alone, as an all around developed spine chiller, however even here erudition shows up as references to Cowan Doyle. The book can likewise be perused as n moral story, a book about structuralism (Burke, Peter). There are a wide range of approaches to take a gander at the book, as called attention to by Burke. Not anticipating that his novel should be a blockbuster in Europe and the United States, Umber Echo was stunned when in 1983 he discovered his book would have been transformed into a film. Expand sets, diminish lighting and foggy scenes, made by chief Jean-Jacques Unhand, gives the film a sort of climate that had no single state of mind. Reported as a palimpsest in the initial credits, shows how Unhand utilized plot rundown to make this film. As Vincent Canny of The New York Times says, As Brother William, the voice of reason during a time of strange notion, Sean Concern puts forth a valiant effort to discover the movies appropriate tone, which ought to have been given by Mr.. Unhand and the four individuals who composed the screenplay. Mr.. Concern doesnt have a simple time of it (Canny, Vincent). With this survey, I think a great many people were stunned with the notoriety of the book, figuring the film would have been vastly improved. Different audits have some comparative and some various assessments of the film. For example, Mac from Time Out New York says The priests themselves are glorious, an exhibition of grotesques straight out of Burgher, and if the film has issues, they are bandy: the homicide secret is explained too early, and rather an excess of plot is packed into the accessible space. (Macintosh). I concur with what Mac needs to state, I feel that the novel is excessively protracted with such a large number of significant subtleties to be left, making this a formula for a fiasco when attempting to make a film. I additionally concur with Mac when he credits the priests on being radiant and an exhibition of grotesques straight out of Burgher in light of the fact that the priests were all around delineated in he film. Sheila Benson from The Los Angels Times says, From the second the credits declare that Jean-Jacques Naiads film is a palimpsest of Umber Echos tale, you realize that youre in for a substantial social climate (Benson, Sheila). This unmistakably expresses Benson concurs with Canny and Mac when they state, an excessive amount of plot for too brief period. From the earliest starting point, Unhand had numerous difficulties when he assumed on the liability of fitting a 500-page novel into a two-hour film. There was no doubt that there would be changes in the plot, with the characters, and minor detail changes. Despite the fact that the film was a palimpsest of the novel, Unhand still came to his meaningful conclusion and made a respectable film.
Wednesday, July 29, 2020
How Long Does Ativan (Lorazepam) Stay in Your System
How Long Does Ativan (Lorazepam) Stay in Your System Addiction Drug Use Prescription Medications Print How Long Does Ativan (Lorazepam) Stay in Your System? By Buddy T facebook twitter Buddy T is an anonymous writer and founding member of the Online Al-Anon Outreach Committee with decades of experience writing about alcoholism. Learn about our editorial policy Buddy T Medically reviewed by Medically reviewed by Daniel B. Block, MD on January 27, 2020 twitter linkedin Daniel B. Block, MD, is an award-winning, board-certified psychiatrist who operates a private practice in Pennsylvania. Learn about our Medical Review Board Daniel B. Block, MD Updated on February 10, 2020 Wavebreakmedia / Getty Images More in Addiction Drug Use Prescription Medications Cocaine Heroin Marijuana Meth Ecstasy/MDMA Hallucinogens Opioids Alcohol Use Addictive Behaviors Nicotine Use Coping and Recovery In This Article Table of Contents Expand Effects Duration Detection Times Elimination Symptoms of Overdose Getting Help View All Back To Top Ativan (lorazepam)?? is a benzodiazepine sedative used to treat anxiety and seizures. It may also be prescribed for people who are undergoing alcohol withdrawal, for nausea from chemotherapy, and for irritable bowel syndrome. It depresses the central nervous system and as a result, has risks when combined with other depressants or alcohol, including the possibility of fatal respiratory depression. Ativan is classified as a Schedule IV drug, which means that it has a lower potential for misuse and lower risk of dependence compared to Schedule II and III drugs, but its important to be aware that Ativan can be habit-forming. As a result, its usually prescribed only for short periods. With long-term use, you can build a tolerance such that larger doses are needed to achieve the same effect. Stopping Ativan after using it for a long period can result in withdrawal symptoms of anxiety, sleeplessness, and irritability.?? While you have Ativan in your system, it is important to understand how it might interact with other medications and substances. You need to be alert for the symptoms of an overdose or severe side effects and work closely with your doctor to avoid these situations.?? How Long Does Ativan Stay in Your System? Urine: Up to six daysBlood: Up to three daysSaliva: Up to 8 hoursHair: 30 days or longer How Ativan (Lorazepam) Works How Long Does It Take to Feel Effects? Ativan belongs to a class of drugs called benzodiazepines that have sedative and hypnotic effects.?? The drug works by enhancing the effects of a natural chemical called GABA, which depresses the central nervous system (CNS) leading to a calming or relaxing effect. Ativan can be given as tablets, liquid concentrate, or by injection. The different routes have different timetables for when they take effect. With tablets or liquids, the peak effects are seen in 2 hours. An injection of Ativan begins to have effects in 15 to 30 minutes, and it lasts for 12 to 24 hours. Ativan (Lorazepam) Precautions How Long Does Ativan Last? While lorazepam is a fast-acting drug, it has a relatively long half-life.?? The half-life of lorazepam is 12 hours, meaning that it decreases in concentration in the body by half every 12 hours. The drug is metabolized primarily by the liver and then eliminated from the body by the kidneys through urine. Ativan may be present up to nine days past the last use. If you are going to be taking a urine drug screen for employment or other purposes, be aware that it will test positive if you are taking Ativan. Disclose your prescription to the testing lab so they can accurately interpret the test results. Blood Ativan can first be detected by blood tests six hours after ingestion. Blood tests can also detect the substance for three days after the last use. However, this detection window may be longer in cases where people have been taking Ativan at higher doses for three days or longer. Urine Ativan is eliminated in the urine for one to six weeks, depending on how much is administered and for how long. Urine screening tests can detect Ativan in samples up to six days after the last use.?? In those who have been taking the drug regularly or at higher doses, this detection window may be somewhat longer. If testing looks for the metabolite lorazepam-glucuronide, which is produced as the drug is broken down by the body, detection may take place up to nine days after the last use. Hair As with other drugs, Ativan can be detected in hair samples for much longer than with other methods. It can be detected with a hair test for up to 30 days after use. Saliva Saliva tests have found that Ativan could be detected in samples for up to eight hours after use.?? However, saliva tests are rarely used to screen for benzodiazepines such as Ativan. Ativan will make your drowsy while it is in your system. You should not drive or operate machinery while you are drowsy. False Positive Testing There are some medications that may result in a false positive urine screen for Ativan. The antidepressant medication Zoloft (sertraline) and prescription non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug Daypro (oxaprozin) reportedly can cause a false-positive urine test for benzodiazepines like Ativan.?? Always disclose any prescription or over-the-counter medications you are taking so lab clinicians can accurately interpret your drug screen results. Factors That Affect Detection Time There are a number of things that can influence just how long Ativan remains in a persons system. While rates usually follow a fairly consistent timeline, some people will metabolize and clear the drug more quickly than others. Some of the factors that can influence how long Ativan remains in your body include the following. Biological Factors Age: Older people tend to clear the drug more slowly than younger people. This is likely because older individuals have slower metabolisms, decreased organ function, lower blood flow, and other health issues that can affect how quickly the drug is processed and excreted.Kidney function: Research has found that liver impairment does not have much of an impact on Ativan clearance rates; however, kidney problems are associated with prolonged drug half-life.??Height and weight: Taller, heavier people typically clear the drug more quickly than shorter, lighter individuals. Dosage and Frequency of Use Higher doses of Ativan take longer to metabolize. The drug is also detectable for longer periods in individuals who have been taking the drug for a longer period of time. Use of Other Substances The concurrent use of other substances can have an impact on how quickly each substance is processed and excreted from the body. For example, research has found that consuming alcohol while using Ativan reduces clearance rates by 18%.?? Researchers believe that short-term alcohol consumption impairs the coupling of the drug or its metabolites with other molecules, which slows the metabolism process. How to Get Ativan Out of Your System Ativan has a relatively long half-life and, like other benzodiazepines, its use can lead to physical dependence. If you do decide to stop taking Ativan, always talk to your doctor first. You should only stop using lorazepam under the supervision of a medical professional due to the potential risk of severe withdrawal side effects. Once you have safely stopped taking Ativan, there may be a few things that you can do to speed up how quickly the drug completely clears your system. Because Ativan is excreted through urine, staying well-hydrated by drinking plenty of fluids may slightly increase how quickly the drug is removed from your system. Symptoms of Overdose An overdose with Ativan is most commonly seen when taken with alcohol or opiate medications like Vicodin (hydrocodone) and OxyContin (oxycodone).?? This combination can be life-threatening, and it is important that your family or household members know what symptoms to look for so they can get emergency help quickly. The signs of an Ativan overdose include:?? Unusual dizzinessLightheadednessExtreme sleepinessSlowed or difficulty breathingUnresponsiveness If you suspect that someone has overdosed on Ativan, call 911 immediately. Precautions You risk serious breathing problems, sedation, or coma when you take Ativan with alcohol or other medications that can depress breathing. Some things that you can do to prevent accidental overdose or other complications: Do not use alcohol while taking Ativan.Do not take any street drugs as they may contain substances that can depress your breathing.If you are breastfeeding, be aware that this drug passes through into your milk and may affect your baby.If you are pregnant or plan to become pregnant, discuss this with your doctor.If you are depressed or have suicidal thoughts, Ativan should be avoided.Older people may experience more effects of Ativan and often are given lower dosages; these people may be more affected by drowsiness and need to take appropriate precautions.Cigarette smoking or using tobacco products can reduce the effects of Ativan.If you take or plan to take any opiate or opioid medications, discuss them with your doctor as they can result in a life-threatening reaction with Ativan. These include medications with codeine or hydrocodone (such as for a cough or pain), fentanyl, hydromorphone, Demerol, methadone, morphine, oxycodone, and tramadol. Discuss all medications (prescription and over-the-counter), supplements, vitamins, and herbal products you take with your doctor as you may need dosages changed when you have Ativan in your system. Always tell your doctor whenever you plan to start a new medication or stop using one. Getting Help If you need help stopping Ativan use, start by talking to your doctor. Physical dependence can occur even if you take the drug exactly as prescribed. Quitting Ativan suddenly can be dangerous or even life-threatening due to the increased risk of seizures during the withdrawal process. You must be monitored by a medical professional as you go through the detox and withdrawal process. In most cases, you can detox from the drug on an outpatient basis. There are no medications approved to treat Ativan dependence, but the standard approach is to slowly reduce the amount of the drug used over a period of time to prevent severe withdrawal symptoms. Your doctor will monitor your progress as you slowly taper off of the drug. Your doctor may also recommend other treatments such as psychotherapy. Types of psychotherapy that may be used during drug recovery include cognitive-behavioral therapy and dialectical behavioral therapy. If you need help with your treatment, ask your doctor to refer you to a psychiatrist or another mental health professional who specializes in addiction recovery. You can also call the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA) at 1-800-662-4357 or use their online treatment locator to find providers and treatment services in your area. Benzodiazepines: Addiction and Dependence
Friday, May 22, 2020
The Benefits Of Video Games - 4102 Words
The Benefits of Videogames Over the years there has been a huge controversy over video games; the number one being the effect on the development of children, and this seems to be used a lot as a way to stigmatize gaming as something entirely destructive. In general, there are many misconceptions about video games. The Entertainment Software Association estimates that around 60% of Americans, around 145 million people in all, currently play some type of video game. Despite the common view of video games as being for kids, the average age of a video game player is actually around 29 years old. While most of the media and research available on video games is geared towards the potential for video game playing to have a negative impact,â⬠¦show more contentâ⬠¦Video game training methods have become increasingly popular among large companies. ââ¬Å"â⬠¦a recent survey reported that IBM managers used lessons learned from online games to promote teamwork in their real jobs (Chun-Chia Lee, et al ââ¬â 1).â⬠IBM is not alone. Other companies have started to use video games for training too. According to CBS News, massive multinational companies such as Fidelity Investments, Royal Dutch Shell, and Coca Cola have invested millions in video game training materials in courses. The fact that such profitable and successful companies have been willing to not only test these methods, but continue to invest millions of dollars in using them to train their personnel, is a testament to the effectiveness of how video games can improve communication skills. Video games are also being used to increase problem-solving skills. For example, Florida State University and the University of Luxembourg, created a study in which they used a stealth assessment tool embedded in a game, to collect data on its users. They called this game Use Your Brainz, a slightly modified version of Plants vs. Zombies 2. Plants vs. Zombies 2 is a free-to-play tower defense strategy game, where your objective is to defend your territory from the enemy. This is normally achieved using defensive structures, which are either on or along the enemy zombieââ¬â¢s path. The modified game was used to test middle-school students onShow MoreRelatedBenefits Of Video Games1395 Words à |à 6 PagesIntroduction Action video games, which are categorized by fighting, shooting, or platform-style games, have come to dominate the gaming industry in the 21st century. Both parents and politicians alike have accused action games for causing antisocial, violent and even addictive behavior in gamers. This fear over video games fueled early research efforts to prove that violent video games were as damaging as claims would suggest. Many studies claim to show an overall negative psychological effect onRead MoreBenefit Of Video Games1001 Words à |à 5 PagesVideo Games are often in debate whether they are harmful or not, research has proven that video games can often help improve functions of the mind. ââ¬Å"In summary, specific types of video games seem to enhance a suite of cognitive functions, some of which appear to generalize to real-world contextsâ⬠(Granic et al. 70). Although, people may think video games influences kids to enact violence, but video games donââ¬â¢t influence them at all, in fact it can help build skills they can use later in life. SomeRead MoreBenefits of Video Games1893 Words à |à 8 PagesThe Benefits of Video Games In todays frantic and stressful society, a desire to escape sometimes is imminent. There are piles of work to do, constant headaches, and relationship tensions are rising. In this current condition one may be aware that it will be impossible to get anything accomplished. What one really needs is a chance to get away from it all, to replenish the mind and release all of their apprehension. A relaxing vacation to a secluded private island would do the trick, but ofRead MoreThe Benefits Of Video Games996 Words à |à 4 PagesWhat benefits those who play video games because of the problems they create? The benefits can range from the smallest things to the largest things. For example, the smallest things could be the idea of achievements in the games to the largest which are careers. Society should not worry about anything when it comes to video games. I would say video games are beneficial no matter the situation, however I will also agree they do create problems for society. Games ar e made to have fun. Whether manyRead MoreSpeech : Benefits Of Video Games Essay1255 Words à |à 6 PagesMediated Speech Mohamad Nabil Oueida Topic: Benefits of Video Games Introduction: I-Hey everybody, Iââ¬â¢m Mo, and welcome to my channel, letââ¬â¢s get started with the video. II-Today I will be talking about a subject that is pretty dear to me, which are video games. III-All of my life, Iââ¬â¢ve been a huge geek when it came to videogames. It helped me cope with life and just like was sort of an escape from reality for me, like games such as Crash Bandicoot, Spyro the Dragon, Pokà ©mon Red andRead MorePsychological Benefits Of Video Games1768 Words à |à 8 Pages Psychological Benefits Of Video Games Rafael Pizana Texas Southmost College Abstract This paper will explore the psychological benefits that video games have on individuals based on research conducted online (Internet) and offline (non-Internet) . The research will focus mainly on cognitive , motivational , emotional and social benefits that individuals gain by playing video games. Furthermore it will compare gamers with those that don t play video games or normal teaching methodsRead MoreBenefit Of Video Games Essay1204 Words à |à 5 PagesVideo games have quickly become the new major source of entertainment for the youth and the upcoming adults of the world. The youth seem to be giving more of their free time to video games. However, they have always seemed to have a bad reputation with many people of all generations. People are starting to believe more and more that video games are nothing but trouble. They feel as if video games are a waste of time and the youth could be using the time they spend on video games on more productiveRead MoreVideo Games : Addictio n Or Benefits?1927 Words à |à 8 PagesIDEO GAMES: ADDICTION OR BENEFITS? Video Games: Addiction or Benefits? Pavel Klopov ENG102.030 Mr. Laufenberg April 15, 2016 Abstract To answer the question ââ¬Å"Are video games beneficial or itââ¬â¢s an addiction?â⬠two areas of video game research are looked at. First, research about benefits of playing video games. Second, research supporting the idea of video game addiction, followed by researchRead MoreBenefits Of Playing Video Games1421 Words à |à 6 PagesThis is because, most young adults are now stuck on their computers and internet, playing games all day. This has led to serious gaming problems among such individuals because they have no social life outside of the game world. Playing game, is a good way of having fun and developing oneââ¬â¢s cognitive ability. The benefits of playing video games are numerous when done in moderation. ââ¬Å"Playing brain-teasing game for just two hours a week may help slow the degree of mental decay associated with the naturalRead MoreEssay on Benefits of Video Games502 Words à |à 3 PagesMost people think that playing video games will lead you to a lif e of crime, delinquency, and slothfulness. The opposite, however, is the truth. Video games can be used to improve hand eye coordination, vision, reaction times, and much more. Does this mean kids should spend all day, everyday playing? No. This occurs when they are used properly and in moderation. Video games actually help your motor skills and other physical aspects, contrary to popular belief. In a study done in New York,
Saturday, May 9, 2020
If You Read Nothing Else Today, Read This Report on Paragraph about Myself
If You Read Nothing Else Today, Read This Report on Paragraph about Myself Where there's no need to be concerned about grammar errors or faulty format. The structure of private statement is much simpler. A cover letter is going to be a possiblity to explain any defects you may have. It is a useful supplement which can help make your abilities and expertise stick out. Who Else Wants to Learn About Paragraph about Myself? Well, the end result of my summer of writing wasn't a good one financially. No need to set your marks and grades in danger when you are in possession of an expert essay writing software on hand. The major question of all students who must compose a reflective or private essay is whether it's possible to produce such kind of academic paper without sounding too egotistical. If you're among the many who has difficulty writing about themselves, you sometimes take the indirect strategy. The Good, the Bad and Paragraph about Myself Even if your writing isn't u p to the standard, you may still work through a number of the techniques to reach the standards. It is preferable to get started writing as soon as you're assigned the undertaking. You can attempt to avoid making introduction very long. Many students believe that proofreading task is a time-consuming procedure, but in reality, it can help you to steer clear of grammar and spelling mistakes. Why Almost Everything You've Learned About Paragraph about Myself Is Wrong Although there isn't any rigid formula for writing a fantastic introduction but we can realize that there are many methods and guidelines we can readily adopt to generate quality effects. It is preferable to acquire professional writing assistance from the corresponding support. So the fundamental homework starts here. The internet editing services are among the methods to proofread the academic paper. Whatever They Told You About Paragraph about Myself Is Dead Wrong...And Here's Why Introductory paragraphs should n't be too long. You are able to choose any myself essay given below depending on your need and requirement. Be certain to inspect the course out so that you can write the very best personal essay possible. Writing the ideal essay may be difficult initially, but with some discipline and practice, you are definitely able to improve. When you're writing your research paper's introduction, you ought to be building it around a particular outline that supplies a general review of the paper. A variety of quotations might also get the job done. Ensure that your cover letter isn't any more than 350 words. Paragraph about Myself Explained All you need to do is follow a very simple procedure. Statements are made by them for a number of different explanations. More examples can produce the paragraph longer. Deductive Transition for Concluding Sentences Introducing a deductive transition to supply the conclusion sentence with a last tone is essential to boost the stream of your work. Writing proposal letter desires some guidelines for making the most out of it. No rule can decide the best outcome in every scenario. Start by stating your position and make propositions that you're going to be presenting on this issue available. Your Value Proposition is a huge answer. What You Don't Know About Paragraph about Myself There are occasions if we are given very short amounts of time for writing an essay and submitting it. Keep in mind, your private essay might be the truth, but it doesn't indicate you shouldn't consider it from a creative writing mindset. You can also see essay writings. You could also see writing examples. You can also see memo writings. You could also see email writings. You could also see article writings. You might also see application writings. Choosing Paragraph about Myself At best, you're telling the reader something they already know. To think of a good bit of writing, one must be craft a very good introduction as it is the very first thing a reader reads after the subject of the war essay. It is sometimes a tough attempting to think of dynamic blog posts that readers will discover interesting and useful. After reading the helpful methods and many examples, a writer may get a better comprehension of the strategies to prepare a strong personal statement. After all is said and done, most men and women believe that the body paragraphs are arguably the simplest to write. A cover letter doesn't always play a critical function in the gas and oil business, but it's required in the event the recruiting head demands for it. For instance, if it's a business proposal or asking for a sponsorship, you will need to mention certain important and essential specifics. After making a number of phone calls you need to be able to obtain the information that you demand.
Wednesday, May 6, 2020
The Underwriting Challenges Facing P.S.V. Insurers in Kenya Free Essays
string(158) " theory of consumer behavior is based on the following axioms regarding consumer preferences:\[2\] 1\) The consumer faces a known set of alternative choices\." Rational Choice Theory: An Overview by Steven L. Green Professor of Economics and Statistics Chair, Department of Economics Baylor University Prepared for the Baylor University Faculty Development Seminar on Rational Choice Theory May 2002 à © 2002, Steven L. Green It has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except all the others that have been tried. We will write a custom essay sample on The Underwriting Challenges Facing P.S.V. Insurers in Kenya or any similar topic only for you Order Now -Winston Churchill It seems easy to accept that rationality involves many features that cannot be summarized in terms of some straightforward formula, such as binary consistency. But this recognition does not immediately lead to alternative characterizations that might be regarded as satisfactory, even though the inadequacies of the traditional assumptions of rational behaviour standardly used in economic theory have become hard to deny. It will not be an easy task to find replacements for the standard assumptions of rational behaviour â⬠¦ hat can be found in the traditional economic literature, both because the identified deficiencies have been seen as calling for rather divergent remedies, and also because there is little hope of finding an alternative assumption structure that will be as simple and usable as the traditional assumptions of self-interest maximization, or of consistency of choice. ââ¬â Amartya Sen (1990, p. 206) 1. Introduction Rational Choice Theory is an approach used by soci al scientists to understand human behavior. The approach has long been the dominant paradigm in economics, but in recent decades it has become more widely used in other disciplines such as Sociology, Political Science, and Anthropology. This spread of the rational choice approach beyond conventional economic issues is discussed by Becker (1976), Radnitzky and Bernholz (1987), Hogarth and Reder (1987), Swedberg (1990), and Green and Shapiro (1996). The main purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of rational choice theory for the non-specialist. I first outline the basic assumptions of the rational choice approach, then I provide several examples of its use. I have chosen my examples to illustrate how widely the rational choice method has been applied. In the paper I also discuss some ideas as to why the rational choice approach has become more prevalent in many disciplines in recent years. One idea is that the rational choice approach tends to provide opportunities for the novel confirmation of theories. I argue that these opportunities are the result primarily of the mathematical nature of the approach. I then consider several issues raised by rational choice theory. First, I compare the limited meaning of ââ¬Å"rationalityâ⬠in rational choice theory with the more general definitions of the term use by philosophers. Second, I describe some of the main criticisms that have been levied against the rational choice approach. Third, I consider the limitations of rational choice models as guides to public policy. Fourth, I review some Christian perspectives on the rational choice appraoch. I end the paper by outlining three sets of questions I would like us to discuss in the faculty development seminar. Before I proceed, an apology and a caveat are in order. I apologize for the length of this paper. The British publisher Lord Beaverbrook once apologized to a friend for sending a five- page letter, saying he did not have time to write a one-page letter. I have the same sentiment here. The caveat is that my discussion of the rational choice theory in this paper is necessarily simplistic, so the reader should not take it as definitive. If some element of the theory seems suspect in some way, there will nearly always be an advanced version of the theory published somewhere that is more subtle and nuanced. Most statements in this paper are subject to qualification along many lines, so the reader should view what I present here keeping in mind the goal of the paper, which is only to give the reader some sense of the overall flavor of the rational choice approach. 2. Basic Assumptions about Choice Determination Rational Choice Theory generally begins with consideration of the choice behavior of one or more individual decision-making units ââ¬â which in basic economics are most often consumers and/or firms. The rational choice theorist often presumes that the individual decision-making unit in question is ââ¬Å"typicalâ⬠or ââ¬Å"representativeâ⬠of some larger group such as buyers or sellers in a particular market. Once individual behavior is established, the analysis generally moves on to examine how individual choices interact to produce outcomes. A rational choice analysis of the market for fresh tomatoes, for example, would generally involve a description of (i) the desired purchases of tomatoes by buyers, (ii) the desired production and sales of tomatoes by sellers, and (iii) how these desired purchases and desired sales interact to determine the price and quantity sold of tomatoes in the market. The typical tomato buyer is faced with the problem of how much of his income (or more narrowly, his food budget) to spend on tomatoes as opposed to some other good or service. The typical tomato seller is faced with the problem of how many tomatoes to produce and what price to charge for them. Exactly how does the buyer choose how much of his income to spend on tomatoes? Exactly how does the seller choose how many tomatoes to produce and what price to charge? One could imagine a number of answers to these questions. They might choose based on custom or habit, with current decisions simply a continuation of what has been done (for whatever reason) in the past. The decisions might be made randomly. In contrast, the rational choice approach to this problem is based on the fundamental premise that the choices made by buyers and sellers are the choices that best help them achieve their objectives, given all relevant factors that are beyond their control. The basic idea behind rational choice theory is that people do their best under prevailing circumstances. What is meant, exactly, by ââ¬Å"best achieve their objectivesâ⬠and ââ¬Å"do their best? â⬠The discussion in this section will emphasize the choices of consumers. 1] The rational choice theory of consumer behavior is based on the following axioms regarding consumer preferences:[2] 1) The consumer faces a known set of alternative choices. You read "The Underwriting Challenges Facing P.S.V. Insurers in Kenya" in category "Essay examples" 2) For any pair of alternatives (A and B, say), the consumer either prefers A to B, prefers B to A, or is indifferent between A and B. This is the axiom of completeness. 3) These p references are transitive. That is, if a consumer prefers A to B and B to C, then she necessarily prefers A to C. If she is indifferent between A and B, and indifferent between B and C, then she is necessarily indifferent between A and C. ) The consumer will choose the most preferred alternative. [3] If the consumer is indifferent between two or more alternatives that are preferred to all others, he or she will choose one of those alternatives ââ¬â with the specific choice from among them remaining indeterminate. When economists speak of ââ¬Å"rationalâ⬠behavior, they usually mean only behavior that is in accord with the above axioms. I consider the definition of ââ¬Å"rationalityâ⬠in more detail near the end of the paper below. Rational choice theories usually represent preferences with a utility function. This is a mathematical function that assigns a numerical value to each possible alternative facing the decision maker. As a simple example, suppose a consumer purchases two goods. Let x denote the number of units of good 1 consumed and y denote the number of units of good 2 consumed. The consumerââ¬â¢s utility function is given by U = U(x,y), where the function U(à ·,à ·) assigns a number (ââ¬Å"utilityâ⬠) to any given set of values for x and y. [4] The properties of a large number of specific function forms for U(à ·,à ·) have been considered. 5] The analysis is by no means restricted to two goods, though in many cases the analyst finds it convenient to assume that x is the good of interest is and y is a ââ¬Å"composite goodâ⬠representing consumption of everything but good x. The function U(à ·,à ·) is normally assumed to have certain properties. First, it is generally assumed that more is preferred to less ââ¬â so that U rises with increases in x and with increases in y. Another way of saying this is to say that marginal utility is positive ââ¬â where the term ââ¬Å"marginal utilityâ⬠is the change in utility associated with a small increase in the quantity of a good consumed. The second property of U(à ·,à ·) is that of diminishing marginal utility, which means that the (positive) marginal utility of each good gets smaller and smaller the more of the good that is being consumed in the first place. Oneââ¬â¢s first Dr. Pepper after a workout yields quite a lot of satisfaction. By the fifth or sixth, the additional satisfaction, while still positive, is much smaller. An important result in consumer theory is that a preference relationship can be represented by a utility function only if the relationship satisfies completeness and transitivity. The converse (that any complete and transitive preference relation may be represented by a utility function) is also true provided that the number of alternative choices is finite. [Mas-Collel, Whinston, and Green (1995, p. 9)] If the number of possible alternative choices is infinite, it may not be possible to represent the preference relation with a utility function. Rational choice analysis generally begins with the premise that some agent, or group of agents, is [are] maximizing utility ââ¬â that is, choosing the preferred alternative. This is only part of the story, however. Another important element of the choice process is the presence of constraints. The presence of constraints makes choice necessary, and one virtue of rational choice theory is that it makes the trade-offs between alternative choices very explicit. A typical constraint in a simple one-period consumer choice problem is the budget constraint, which says that the consumer cannot spend more than her income. Multi-period models allow for borrowing, but in that case the constraint is that the consumer must be able to repay the loan in the future. The use of utility functions means the idea of agents making the preferred choices from among available alternatives is translated into a mathematical exercise in constrained optimization. That is, an agent is assumed to make the feasible choice (feasible in a sense that it is not prohibited by constraints) that results in the highest possible value of his or her utility function. Constrained optimization methods (based on either calculus or set theory) are well developed in mathematics. The solution to the constrained optimization problem generally leads to a decision rule. The decision rule shows how utility-maximizing choices vary with changes in circumstances such as changes in income or in the prices of goods. A third element of rational choice analysis involves assumptions about the environment in which choices are made. Simple economic models are often restricted to choices made in markets, with emphasis on how much of each good or service consumers want to purchase (or firms want to produce and sell) under any given set of circumstances. A fourth element of rational choice analysis is a discussion of how the choices of different agents are made consistent with one another. A situation with consistent choices in which each agent is optimizing subject to constraints is called equilibrium. In the fresh tomato market, for example, the choices of buyers and sellers are consistent if the quantity of tomatoes consumers want to purchase at the prevailing price is equal to the quantity that firms want to produce and sell at that price. In this as in other simple market models, price plays a key role in the establishment of equilibrium. If consumers want to purchase more than firms are producing, the price will be bid upward, which will induce more production by firms and reduce desired purchases by consumers. If consumers want to purchase less than firms are producing, the resulting glut will force prices down, which will reduce production by firms and increase purchases by consumers. Fifth and last, in the absence of strong reasons to do otherwise such as the imposition of price controls by the government, the analyst employing rational choice theory will generally assume that equilibrium outcomes in the model are adequate representations of what actually happens in the real world. This means, in the above example, that a rational choice theorist would explain changes in the actual price of tomatoes observed in the real world by looking for possible causes of changes in the equilibrium price of tomatoes in her model. Extensions The basic rational choice theory described above has been extended in a number of ways. I will consider four important ones in this section, though there are of course many others. First, the basic theory accounts only for choice at a given time ââ¬â that is, the model is static. In contrast, a dynamic (or intertemporal) model allows the agent to plan for the future as well as make choices in the present. In a dynamic model, the agent is still assumed to maximize utility, but the concept of utility is generalized to include not only present satisfaction but also future satisfaction. The agent does not just make choices today ââ¬â he makes a plan for current and future choices. In this case, it may well be ââ¬Å"rationalâ⬠to sacrifice (e. g. , consume less or work more) today in order to obtain some better outcome tomorrow. The dynamic formulation is an essential element of theories of saving and investment. One issue that arises in dynamic models is that of discounting. In most dynamic models, the agents under consideration are assumed to prefer (other things equal) a given level of consumption in the present to a given level of consumption in the future. Consider a model with two periods, 1 and 2. Let U1 denote the agentââ¬â¢s utility in period 1 and U2 denote utility in period 2. (U1 and U2 can depend on a number of factors, some of which can be controlled by the agent. ) The agent would then be assumed to formulate a plan for periods 1 and 2 to maximize the sum V = U1 + ? à ·U2, where 0 ? 1 is the ââ¬Å"discount factor. [6] A specification of ? 1 means that a given utility is worth less to the agent in the future than in the present, and is denoted a ââ¬Å"positive rate of time preferenceâ⬠or simply ââ¬Å"time preference. â⬠A justification for time preference is given by Olson and Bailey (1981). Elster (1984, pp. 66ff) summarizes the opposing view that ââ¬Å"â ⬠¦ for an individual the very fact of having time preferences, over and above what is justified by the fact that we are mortal, is irrational and perhaps immoral as well. â⬠In any case, dynamic models with positive time preference are pervasive in the rational choice literature. The basic rational choice model assumes all outcomes are known with certainty. A second extension of the basic model involves explicit treatment of uncertainty. This is important in rational choice models of crime, for example, where a rational agent is assumed to consider the chance he or she will be apprehended while committing a criminal act. The rational choice model is extended to allow for uncertainty by assuming the agent maximizes expected utility. Uncertainty is characterized by a probability distribution that assigns a likelihood (probability) to each possible outcome. Suppose there are two possible outcomes (for example, the prospective criminal is apprehended while committing a crime, or not apprehended while committing the crime), which we can denote outcome A and outcome B. Let pA denote the probability that outcome A will occur pB denote the probability of outcome B. With these as the only possible outcomes, it is clear that pA + pB = 1 ââ¬â that is, there is a 100% chance that either A or B will occur. Let U(A) be the agentââ¬â¢s utility with outcome A and U(B) be the agentââ¬â¢s utility with outcome B. The agent is then assumed to maximize expected utility, which is the sum of utility in each outcome weighted by the probability that outcome will occur: V = pAà ·U(A) + pBà ·U(B). In general, the choices of the agent can affect pA and pB as well as U(A) and U(B). A related (and third) area in which the rational choice model is extended involves incomplete information. In the basic model described above, the agent knows perfectly all the qualities of the goods under her consideration. More generally, an agent may have to make choices when she does not have full information. A university generally does not have full information about the future research productivity of a new assistant professor, for example, and a used car buyer cannot be certain that he is not driving a ââ¬Å"lemonâ⬠off the lot. The fourth area in which the basic rational choice model is extended involves strategic behavior. This generally occurs in situations in which there are only a few agents. The key issue is that each agent must take into account the likely effect of his actions on the decisions of other agents, all of whom are looking at the situation the same way. A classic ongoing example of this kind of interaction involves the crude-oil production decisions of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Acting collectively, OPEC members have an incentive to restrict production to keep the world price of crude-oil high. Thus each OPEC country is given a production quota ââ¬â a limit on the amount it can produce. Each country acting individually, however, has an incentive to ââ¬Å"cheatâ⬠on its quota and thereby be able to sell more crude-oil at the high price. This will only be successful if the other countries maintain their quotas, however, thereby keeping the price high. Thus when a country is contemplating the breach of a quota, it must consider how other member countries may react. The branch of economics that deals with strategic interactions is called game theory. [7] 3. A Brief Description of the Rational Choice Method Like most scholarship, rational choice analysis usually begins with a question. What determines church attendance? Are suicide rates affected by the state of the economy? Do seat belt laws make highways safer? Under what circumstances are ââ¬Å"cold turkeyâ⬠methods necessary to end addictions? Why are drivers of certain minority groups more likely to be pulled over by police? Which soldiers are most likely to suffer casualties in a war? Why canââ¬â¢t Yasser Arafat and Ariel Sharon just get along? Why did large mammals become extinct in the Pelistocene era? When are workers most likely to ââ¬Å"shirkâ⬠their job responsibilities? Does a reported decline in ââ¬Å"consumer confidenceâ⬠portend a slowdown in the economy? Varian (1997, p. 4) describes the model-building process as follows: â⬠¦ all economic models are pretty much the same. There are some economic agents. They make choices in order to advance their objectives. The choices have to satisfy various constraints so thereââ¬â¢s something that adjusts to make all these choices consistent. This basic structure suggests a plan of attack: Who are the people making choices? What are the constraints they face? How do they interact? What adjusts if the choices arenââ¬â¢t mutually consistent? I will provide a slightly more detailed description here. Rational choice analysis may be characterized as working through the following steps: 1) Identify the relevant agents and make assumptions about their objectives. 2) Identify the constraints faced by each agent. ) Determine the ââ¬Å"decision rulesâ⬠of each agent, which characterize how an agentââ¬â¢s choices respond to changes of one kind or another ââ¬â for example, how the quantity of tomatoes purchased might change with price or income. This task is usually accomplished mathematically by the solution of a constrained optimization problem. 4) Determine how the decision rules of various agents may be made consistent with one another and thereby characterize the equilibrium of the model. [8] Effective analysis of complex interactions between agents normally involves the use of mathematical methods, which can sometimes be quite sophisticated. ) Explore how the equilibrium of the model changes in response to various external events. That is, determine the predictions or implications of the model. Again, this step can involve substantial use of mathematics. 6) Examine whether the predictions determined in step (5) are consistent with actual experience. This step often involves the statistical analysis of data and can involve sophisticated techniques (to control sample selection bias, for example). 7) Draw conclusions and any implications (for government policy, for example) implied by (6). It is often the case that the question at hand may be addressed by reference to standard theoretical results (e. g. , people generally want to consume less of a product when its price increases). In these circumstances the analyst often will not specify and solve a rational choice model explicitly. Instead, she will assume the reader understands that the model could be specified and solved if necessary and would have conventional implications. A. Preference Specification In rational choice theory behavior follows from the pursuit of objectives, so preference specification is crucial. Frank (1997, p. 18) describes two general approaches. The self-interest standard of rationality ââ¬Å"says rational people consider only costs and benefits that accrue directly to themselves. â⬠The present-aim standard of rationality ââ¬Å"says rational people act efficiently in pursuit of whatever objectives they hold at the moment of choice. â⬠Frank contends that neither approach is obviously satisfactory. Many people would seem to care about more than their own material well-being, so the selfish egoism implied by self-interest standard is probably too narrow. In contrast, the present-aim standard puts no restrictions at all on preference formation, which means that anything can be explained by an appeal to preferences. Again quoting Frank (1997, p. 18): Suppose, for example, that we see someone drink a gallon of used crankcase oil and keel over dead. The present-aim approach can ââ¬Å"explainâ⬠this behavior by saying that the person must have really liked crankcase oil. The main strength of the self-interest standard is that the associated preference specifications are generally straightforward. This approach, which dominates basic economic theory, usually assumes that utility depends only on the consumption of material goods and services and that, for any given good or service, more is strictly preferred to less. Bergstrom (forthcoming) presents an analysis based on evolutionary considerations showing circumstances under which selfish behavior will become dominant. The present-aim standard has also been used in rational choice models, but its use is nowhere near as prevalent as use of the self-interest standard. The reasons are threefold. First, the self-interest standard has often been successful in the sense of yielding predictions that are consistent with experience. Second, there is no compelling way to specify preferences when the only criterion is ââ¬Å"more than self-interest matters. â⬠(People may care about others, but are teh jealous or altruistic? ) Third, self-interest standard models are more tractable analytically and are more prone than present-aim models to imply specific observable predictions. In particular, models in which agents care about each other in some way are prone to have multiple equilibria (sometimes an infinity of equilibria). Frank (1987) makes an evolutionary argument that preferences should include concerns for others. Bergstrom (1999) explores some possible solutions to the ââ¬Å"multiple equilibriumâ⬠problem. B. Theory Revision It many instances step (6) will find that one or more of the predictions of a model are not borne out by the data. In these cases, the typical rational choice theorist will not even consider abandoning the assumption of utility maximization. Instead, she will conclude that she must have missed something about constraints or preferences and attempt to revise her theory accordingly. This issue of theory revision is very tricky, and space limitations (not to mention by limited understanding) permit only a brief discussion here. Suppose a theory T has prediction P, when in fact available data indicate the opposite (not P, or ~P). The theory might then be revised in some way to become theory Tââ¬â¢, where Tââ¬â¢ predicts ~P rather than P. My impression is that most economists would much rather change assumptions about constraints rather than change assumptions about preferences. 9] This viewpoint reflects a desire to avoid meaningless tautologies such as ââ¬Å"he consumed more tomatoes because his preferences changed in such a way that he wanted to consume more tomatoes. â⬠One can explain any choice in this way. Hausman (1984) summarizes the thinking of Lakatos (1970) as follows: A modification of a theory is an improvement if it is not ad hoc. Modifications may be ad hoc in three ways. First of all, a modification of a theory may have no new testable implications at all. Lakatos regards such modifications as completely empty and unscientific. Modifications that are not ad hoc in this sense are ââ¬Å"theoretically progressive. â⬠It may be, however, that the testable implications of the theoretically progressive modifications are not confirmed by experiments or observations. In that case modifications are theoretically progressive but not empirically progressive. They are ad hoc in the second sense. An extended process of theory modification is progressive overall if the modifications are uniformly theoretically progressive and intermittently empirically progressive. As one is modifying oneââ¬â¢s theory in the hope of improving it, modifications must always have new testable implications, and those testable implications must sometimes be borne out by experience. But one crucial feature of science has been left out. Throughout this history of repeated modifications, there must be some element of continuity. No theoretical progress in economics is made if I modify monetary by theory by adding to it the claim that copper conducts electricity. The expanded theory has testable (and confirmed) implications, but something arbitrary has simply been tacked on. Such a modification is ad hoc in the third sense. One needs to recognize the role of something like a Kuhnian ââ¬Å"paradigm. â⬠Modifications of theories must be made in the ââ¬Å"rightâ⬠way. (p. 23) I believe that most rational choice theorists would adhere to these criteria for effective theory modification. As Stigler and Becker (1977) note: What we assert is not that we are clever enough to make illuminating applications of utility-maximizing theory to all important phenomena ââ¬â not even our entire generation of economists is clever enough to do that. Rather, we assert that this traditional approach of the economist offers guidance in tackling these problems ââ¬â and that no other approach of remotely comparable generality and power is available. (pp. 76-7) â⬠¦. We also claim â⬠¦ that no significant behavior has been illuminated by assumptions of differences in tastes. Instead, they, along with assumptions of unstable tastes, have been a convenient crutch to lean on when the analysis has bogged down. They give the appearance of considered judgement (sic), yet really have only been ad hoc arguments that disguise analytical failures. p. 89) In any case, one can change assumptions about preferences only if the new assumptions not only fix the failure of the previous model (that is, they imply ~P rather than P) but also have new predictions that are not rejected by the data. C. Why is the Rational Choice Approach so Popular? [10] Defenders of the rational choice approach ââ¬â e. g. , Becker (1976) ââ¬â argue that t he approach is useful because it tends to generate non-tautological predictions. Suppose a scholar wants to account for some observed phenomenon P. For example, P might be the fact that wage rates paid to workers (after adjustment for inflation) tend to rise during good economic times [expansions] and fall during bad economic times [recessions]. It is generally quite easy to develop a theory T that predicts P, especially for someone who has studied P carefully. In fact, many such theories can be constructed. Importantly, however, it is generally not good scientific practice to use the same data to both formulate and test a hypothesis or theory. If so, all theories would be confirmed. Instead, good methodology will develop a theory T that not only predicts P, but that also has other predictions Q1, Q2, Q3, â⬠¦ Ideally, many of these predictions will be observable ââ¬â that is, one should be able to determine if Q1, Q2, Q3 â⬠¦. do or do not in fact occur. If these predictions are not observed ââ¬â say not Q1 (~Q1) is observed rather than Q1 ââ¬â the theory may be judged inadequate and either revised or discarded. If I may be allowed a lapse into imprecise language, a theory can never be right if there is not at least some possibility in the first place for it to be wrong. 11] This is not to say that rational choice theorists are pristine with respect to this requirement. The history of economic thought is no doubt full of bad theories (ââ¬Å"badâ⬠in the sense that one or more key predictions are not consistent with the data) that have been saved by ad hoc modifications. It is to say that proponents of the rational choice approach contend that ad hoc theorizing and the resulting empty tautologies may be less prevalent with their approach than with other approaches. I certainly agree that the rational choice method does in fact tend to generate many testable predictions, and in Sections 4 and 5 below I discuss several illustrative examples. Despite the fact that advocates of rational choice theory justify their approach in this way, I know of no study that explicitly compares methodologies along these lines. Is it really the case that rational choice models have more non-tautological implications than the models implied by other approaches? I am not sure anyone has examined this issue carefully. I believe the rational choice methodology is gaining in popularity not just because it tends to generate lots of observable predictions, but also because it tends to generate novel predictions. This is an extension of the idea of novel confirmation. Novel confirmation embodies the sentiment expressed by Descartes (1644) that we know hypotheses are correct ââ¬Å"only when we see that we can explain in terms of them, not merely the effects we originally had in mind, but also all other phenomena which we did not previously think. â⬠[Quoted by Musgrave (1974), p. 1)] Campbell and Vinci (1983, p. 15) begin their discussion of novel confirmation as follows: Philosophers of science generally agree that when observational equivalence supports a theory, the confirmation is much stronger when the evidence is ââ¬Ënovelââ¬â¢. The verification of an unusual prediction, for example, tends to provide much stronger confirmation than the explanation of something already known of somethin g the theory was designed to account for. This view is so familiar that Michael Gardner has recently described it as ââ¬Ëa lengthy tradition ââ¬â not to say a consensus ââ¬â in the philosophy of science. ââ¬â¢ As seems to often be the case in the philosophy of science, the usefulness of novel confirmation is not as well established as the above quote implies. Campbell and Vinci (1983) also note that ââ¬Å"â⬠¦ the notion of novel confirmation is beset with a theoretical puzzle about how the degree of confirmation can change without any change in the evidence, hypothesis, or auxiliary assumptions. â⬠(p. 315) Kahn, Landsburg, and Stockman (1992) maintain that the question of novel confirmation can be addressed meaningfully only in the presence ââ¬Å"of an explicit model by which hypotheses are generated. â⬠(p. 04) They find that the idea of novel confirmation is valid if there are unobservable differences in the abilities of scientists or if there is some chance of error in observation. [12] Campbell and Vinci (1993) distinguish between epistemic novelty and heuristic novelty. Epistemic novelty occurs when a theory has an implication that would be considered highly improbabl e in the absence of the theory. There is of course a question over the proper definition of ââ¬Å"highly improbable. â⬠Heuristic novelty occurs when the evidence predicted by a theory plays no heuristic role in the formation of the theory. Descartes would seem to be referring to heuristic novelty in the above quote. Rational choice theory is a useful methodology in part (perhaps in large part) because it tends to lead the researcher to novel implications, thereby making novel confirmation more likely than may be the case with other methodologies. Space and time considerations do not allow me to attempt a full-blown analysis of this conjecture, which in any case I am not really qualified to undertake because of my limited exposure to alternative social science methodologies not based on rational choice and my limited knowledge of the philosophy of science. In Sections 4 and 5 below I describe several examples of rational choice theory and some associated novel implications. I should note that the mathematical nature of rational choice theory would appear (to me) to be crucial here. Mathematics allows the theorist to make some sense out of complicated interactions between decision-making units that would otherwise be difficult or impossible to untangle. It is precisely those kinds of situations in which rational choice theories are most likely to have novel implications, because the implications are not immediately apparent even to scholars with knowledge, experience, and intuition. We now proceed to Section 4, which provides a detailed discussion of a rational choice model of church attendance. Section 5 gives shorter summaries of several other rational choice models, including models of suicide, auto safety regulation, addiction, racial profiling, Congressional influence on military assignments, political revolutions, megafauna extinction, and the predictability of consumption spending. 4. A Detailed Example: Church Attendance Azzi and Ehrenberg (1975) develop a rational choice model of church attendance. This is a classic paper, which Iannaccone (1998, p. 1480) calls ââ¬Å"â⬠¦ the first formal model for religious participation (within any discipline) and â⬠¦ the foundation for nearly all subsequent economic models of religious behavior. â⬠[Italics in original. ] Their analysis begins with the assumption that the utility of a household consisting of two members, a husband and a wife, is given by: (1)U = U(C1, s1, C2, s2, â⬠¦ , Ct, st, â⬠¦ Cn, sn, q), where Ci is the householdââ¬â¢s consumption of market goods and services in period i (i = 1, â⬠¦ n), and si denotes religious participation in period i. The model assumes ââ¬Å"for simplicityâ⬠that both members of the household know how long they will live and that both will die at date n. This is a dynamic model, because the household cares about future as well as current consumption. The remaining variable in the househol d utility function, q, is the ââ¬Å"expected value of the householdââ¬â¢s afterlife consumption. Azzi and Ehrenberg assume that church attendance follows from a ââ¬Å"salvation motiveâ⬠(the desire to increase afterlife consumption) and a ââ¬Å"social pressure motiveâ⬠(where church membership and participation increases the chances that an individual will be successful in business), rather than necessarily a pure ââ¬Å"consumption motiveâ⬠(people simply enjoy the time they spend at church). Consumption in period i (any year during which the husband and wife are alive) is given by: (2)Ci = C(xt, h1t, h2t), here xt is denotes the consumption of goods and services purchases in markets, while h1t and h2t are the amounts of time devoted by the husband and wife, respectively, to market-based consumption. The idea here is that satisfaction involves not only the purchase of a good (such as a television) but also time spent using the good. The social value of church a ttendance in period i, denoted by si, is determined as follows: (3)si = s(r1i, r2i) where r1i and r2i denote the time spent on church-related activities by the husband and wife, respectively, in year i. People get more current satisfaction from going to church the more time they devote to church-related activities. After-life consumption q is determined as follows: (3)q = q(r11, r12, r21, r22, â⬠¦ , r1n, r2n), That is, the more time spent on church-related activities during all periods of life means the more the household members will enjoy their afterlife. Azzi and Ehrenberg (p. 33, fn. 7) note that ââ¬Å"Our householdââ¬â¢s view of the afterlife is not one of an all-or-nothing proposition (heaven or hell), it is rather that there is a continuum of possible outcomes. â⬠The choices of the household are constrained by time and money. The two household members can allocate time in labor [which generates income that can be used to purchase the goods and services denoted by xt in equation (1) above], consumption-related activities [reflected in h1t and h2t in equation (2) above], and church-related activities [reflected in the r1i and r2i in equation (3) above]. The constraint here is that each day has 24 hours. Hence the couple can spend more time on church-related activities only if they spend less time earning income and/or consuming. The second constraint in the model says basically that, over the course of their lives, the couple cannot spend more than their combined income. ââ¬Å"Over the course of their livesâ⬠means that it is possible for them to borrow early in life as long as they repay the loan (with interest) later in life. It is also possible to lend early in life, which means that consumption can exceed income later. The amount of labor income the couple earns depends on the amount of time spent working by the husband and wife and the wage rate each is paid. The model also allows for ââ¬Å"non-labor incomeâ⬠in each period, which might reflect investment returns. The distinction between labor and non-labor income turns out to be rather interesting and important with respect to church attendance. Azzi and Ehrenbergââ¬â¢s analysis is complicated in some respects and simple in others. It is complicated because it considers consumption over several periods rather than just one, and it allows for ââ¬Å"consumptionâ⬠to depend on time (the h1t and h2t) as well as purchases of goods and services in the market (xt). The model is simple in that it does not consider the ââ¬Å"supply side. â⬠That is, the model simply assumes that the household can ââ¬Å"buyâ⬠any amount that it likes of consumption goods (xt) and that there are no effective limits on religious participation (st). The power of the rational choice approach is that rational choice models tend to have lots of observable implications, some of which are novel. The Azzi and Ehrenberg model implies that: (i) The frequency of church attendance increases with age; â⬠¢ (ii) Females attend church more frequently than males; â⬠¢ (iii) Nonwhites attend church more frequently than whites; â⬠¢ (iv) People who believe in an afterlife attend church more frequently; â⬠¢ (v) Having a spouse of the same major religion increases participation; â⬠¢ (vi) As health deteriorates church attendance declines; â⬠¢ (vii) An increase in the number of pre-school age children present in the household reduces church attendance; à ¢â¬ ¢ (viii) An increase in the number of school-age children present in the household increases church attendance; (ix) Femalesââ¬â¢ hours devoted to religious activities will rise more rapidly with age than will the hours devoted by males to religious activities; â⬠¢ (x) For males who show sharp earnings increases in their 20s, religious participation may first decline with age and then increase; â⬠¢ (xi) An increase in nonlabor income will increase religious participation; and â⬠¢ (xii) The effect of a proportionate shift in wages (say, a 10% increase in the present and all future periods) on church attendance is ambiguous. Many of these implications are not surprising, but (ix) would appear to be somewhat novel. Item (ii) means that 40 year old women will attend church more frequently than 40 year old men. Item (ix) means that the change (increase) in church participation associated with aging from 40 to 50 will be greater among women than among men. Item (ii) follows directly from the fact that females tend to have lower wages. Thus if one could find couples in which the wife earns more than the man, the model predicts for those couples that the wife will probably not be inclined to attend church more frequently. Also, allowing for an uncertain time of death may overturn (i): ââ¬Å"â⬠¦ nce an individual is faced with a relatively high probability of death in a period it may become optimal for him to concentrate his religious participation as early as possible, since he may not survive to ââ¬Ëinvestââ¬â¢ in future periods. â⬠(p. 38) 5. Several Brief Examples This section presents a brief overview of several applications of rational choice theory. Unlike the church attendance example above, in which the form of the utility function was written out explicitly, the discussions in this section for the most part present only brief descriptions of the relevant optimization problems and some of the resulting implications. A. Suicide Hamermesh and Soss (1974) develop a rational choice theory of suicide. They assume that the utility of an individual in any given period depends positively on ââ¬Å"consumptionâ⬠and negatively on ââ¬Å"a technological relation describing the cost each period of maintaining [oneself] at some minimum level of subsistence. â⬠(p. 85) ââ¬Å"Consumptionâ⬠is a function of age and of ââ¬Å"permanent income,â⬠which is a measure of current and expected future income. Individuals are assumed to vary exogenously (according to a probability distribution) in their distastes for suicide ââ¬â that is, some individuals are more averse to suicide than others. This framework implies that ââ¬Å"â⬠¦ an individual kills himself when the total discounted lifetime utility remaining to him reaches zero. â⬠(p. 85). Thus in this model we have a rational individual who is forward looking, considering not only his present utility but what his future utility is likely to be. If total utility over the rest of his life is higher with suicide and life ending in the present than it is with the continuation of life, suicide is the ââ¬Å"rationalâ⬠option. Here are some of the major implications of the model. (i) The suicide rate should rise with age. â⬠¢ (ii) The suicide rate should fall with increases in permanent income[13] and decreases in the unemployment rate. â⬠¢ (iii) The marginal absolute effect of permanent income on suicide declines as permanent income increases. The first two effects are by no means surprising, but the third effect is certainly by no means obvious ex ante (at least to me). (ii) means that suicide rates will fall as income rises. (iii) means that the effect of increases in income gets smaller the larger income is to begin with. A $10,000 raise is much more likely to prevent suicide if the person is earning $50,000 to begin with than if the person is earning $150,000. This is quite plausible, but the point is that it is not something most analysts would think about ex ante. B. Auto Safety Regulation. Peltzman (1975) considers the likely effects of ââ¬Å"legally mandated installation of various safety devices[14] on automobiles. â⬠[15] The devices in question for the most part were designed to reduce the damages caused by accidents rather than to reduce the likelihood that accidents occur. Peltzman notes that the auto safety literature estimates the impact of afety mandates by assuming that (i) the mandates have no effect on the probability that an accident will occur, and (ii) the mandates have no effect on the voluntary demand for safety devices. In effect, the regulations were implemented based on analysis that assumed the same number and nature of accidents would occur, but that automobiles would be better equipped to protect drivers and passengers from injury and death. He notes that ââ¬Å"[t]echnological studies imply that annual highway deaths would be 20 percent greater without legally mandated installation of various safety devices on automobiles. (p. 677) Peltzman considers the behavior of a typical driver and postulates quite reasonably that he or she is made worse off by traffic accidents ââ¬â or, equivalently, that he or she benefits from safety. Peltzman also assumes, however, that the driver benefits from what he calls ââ¬Å"driving intensity,â⬠by which he means ââ¬Å"more speed, thrills, etc. â⬠(p. 681). Other things equal, the driver can obtain more driving intensity only by driving less safely. Thus the driver faces a trade-off between two goods, intensity and safety, in which more of one can be obtained only by giving up some of the other. This kind of trade-off is in standard fare for rational choice theorists. In basic consumer choice theory the consumer with a given income can obtain more of one good only if he or she consumes less of some other good (or goods). The standard consumer choice problem also considers what happens when the consumerââ¬â¢s income rises. Rational choice theory predicts that, in the absence of very unusual circumstances, the consumer will buy more of most goods when income rises. Put another way, it is typically not the case that a consumer will allocate one hundred percent of an increase in income to increased consumption of a single good. Income increases tend to be ââ¬Å"spread aroundâ⬠over several goods. Peltzman argues that the imposition of mandated safety devices in automobiles is rather like an increase in income in the sense that the devices make it possible for drivers to obtain both more safety and more intensity. Technological studies in effect assume that drivers will respond by consuming only more safety, but rational choice theory indicates that drivers can also respond by consuming more intensity (that is, by driving less safely). The extent to which drivers choose between more safety and more intensity is ultimately an empirical question. Suppose drivers choose to increase consumption of both safety and intensity ââ¬â which is what economists have come to expect in these kinds of situations. In this case, the rational choice model implies that the number of total driving accidents[16] should rise because of increased driving intensity, while the average amount of damage per accident ââ¬â as reflected, say in the number of fatalities among passengers ââ¬â should decrease because of the safety improvements. This means that it is actually possible for total traffic fatalities to rise as a result of the safety mandates! This would happen if the increase in the number of accidents is sufficiently large relative to the decrease in average damage per accident. Once again we have an example of a rational choice model yielding implications that are not obvious ex ante. The novel predictions here are that the imposition of auto safety mandates (i) should increase the occurrence of traffic accidents, and (ii) should decrease the relative frequency of accidents involving passenger fatalities, and (iii) may increase or decrease the total number of traffic fatalities. After extensive empirical testing based on several data sets, Peltzman concludes that ââ¬Å"regulation appears not to have reduced highway deaths. â⬠(p. 714). There is indeed some evidence that the number of deaths increased, but in most cases that evidence is not strong. In any case, there is no evidence that the regulations decreased traffic fatalities. Peltzman also finds that the safety mandates were followed by an increase in the number of accidents involving pedestrians and by an increase in the number of accidents involving only property damage with no injury to vehicle occupants. A related paper by McCormick and Tollison (1984) considers the effect on arrest rates of an increase in the number of police officers. Rational choice theory indicates that the quality of law enforcement should not be judged by arrest rates alone. If the number of police officers increases and as a result the probability of arrest for any given crime increases, rational prospective criminals will see the expected cost of crime rise and therefore undertake fewer criminal acts. Total arrests reflect both the number of criminal acts (which should fall) and the percentage of criminal acts for which an arrest is made (which should rise). Total arrests rise only if the latter effect is stronger than the former. McCormick and Tollison test their theory using data from the Atlantic Coast Conference in menââ¬â¢s college basketball. In 1978, the conference increased the number of officials from two to three. In this context, one may think of officials as police officers and fouls called as arrests. McCormick and Tollison find that this 50 percent increase in the number of officials caused a 34 percent reduction in the number of fouls called (p. 229). When my son Aaron (now almost 5 years old) was an infant, he attended the Baylor Child Development Center during the day. In the room where the teacher changed diapers, there was a pad on the counter but no restraint of any kind (such as a belt or guard rail). When I asked the director about this, she said that there was no restraint because she (the director) did not want to give the teacher a false sense of security. With a belt or rail, the teacher might be tempted to walk away for ââ¬Å"just a minuteâ⬠to check on something in the room. Whether restraints increase or decrease changing table accidents is an empirical question, though Pelzmanââ¬â¢s analysis suggests the director made the right decision. C. Addiction Stigler and Becker (1977) propose a rational choice theory of addiction, a theory subsequently elaborated by Becker and Murphy (1988). In this theory, ââ¬Å"a person is potentially addicted to [some good] c if an increase in his current consumption of c increases his future consumption of c. (Becker and Murphy, 1988, p. 81) The key feature of these models is that a consumerââ¬â¢s utility in any given period depends not just on consumption in that period, but also on ââ¬Å"consumption capitalâ⬠. Consumption capital is essentially the consumerââ¬â¢s ability to enjoy a particular good, which depends on past consumption of the good and perhaps on other factors. If pa st consumption enhances current enjoyment ability, the addition is said to be beneficial. This might be the case, for example, with listening to classical music. The more one listens to classical music, the greater oneââ¬â¢s capacity to appreciate it. Stigler and Becker note that beneficial consumption capital might also be positively influenced by education. Highly educated people might have a greater capacity to enjoy things like classical music, opera, and art. If past consumption reduces current enjoyment ability, the addition is said to be harmful. This is the case with substances such as heroin and other substances normally considered to be addictive. The more heroin a person consumes in the present, the less will be his or her future enjoyment (ââ¬Å"highâ⬠) from any given amount of heroin consumption in the future. 17] The formal setup in Stigler and Becker (1977, p. 78) is relatively simple. First consider beneficial addiction ââ¬â to, say, classical music. Consumer utility (U) depends positively on two goods, M (music appreciation) and Z (other goods): U = U(M, Z). Music appreciation depends positively on the time allocated to music listening â⠢ and on music consumption capital (Sm): M = M(tm, Sm). Music c onsumption capital at date j, Smj, depends positively on the time allocated to music consumption in the past, Mj-1, Mj-2, â⬠¦. and positively (perhaps) on the personââ¬â¢s level of education at time j (denoted Ej): Smj = S(Mj-1, Mj-2, â⬠¦ , Ej). The addition is beneficial if Smj depends on positively on the past values of M. Alternatively, for harmful addition we may replace M with H, where H denotes the consumption of a good such as heroin. In this case, consumption capital S depends negatively on past values of H. The elaborated model of Becker and Murphy (1988) views addictive behavior as a situation in which the consumption of a particular good begins to increase rapidly. [18] Their model has a number of implications. Perhaps he most interesting is their finding that the demand for addictive goods should be quite sensitive to permanent changes in price (where the ââ¬Å"priceâ⬠of illegal goods includes the expected costs associated with apprehension by authoriti es, as well as any foregone earnings that may result from becoming addicted and, say, unable to work), but not necessarily to temporary price changes. A second implication is that strong addictions, if they are to end, must end suddenly (ââ¬Å"cold turkeyâ⬠). ââ¬Å"Rational persons end stronger addictions more rapidly than weaker ones. â⬠(p. 692). Other implications are that ââ¬Å"addicts often go on bingesâ⬠(p. 75), ââ¬Å"present-oriented individuals are potentially more addicted to harmful goods than future-oriented individualsâ⬠(p. 682), and ââ¬Å"temporary events can permanently ââ¬Ëhookââ¬â¢ rational persons to addictive goodsâ⬠(p. 691). Stigler and Becker (1977) and Becker and Murphy (1988) do not perform empirical tests of their models of rational addiction. Tests have been performed by other authors, however. Because good consumption data are not available for illegal substances, tests have focused on tobacco and caffeine. Tests based on tobacco consumption are reported by Becker, Grossman, and Murphy (1994), and Keeler, et. l. (1993). A test based on caffeine consumption is reported by Olekalns and Bardsley (1996). These tests are generally supportive of the rational addiction theory. Becker and Murphy (1988) note that with a simple extension their model can explain cycles of overeating and dieting. Their basic analysis assumes there is only one kind of consumption capital. Suppose that with respect to food there are instead two types of consumption capital, one of which is simply the personââ¬â¢s weight (which might be called ââ¬Å"health capitalâ⬠) and the other of which is ââ¬Å"eating capital. That is, eating can be both harmful and beneficial in the senses defined above. As eating increases, health capital falls (weight gain has detrimental effects on health) and eating capital rises (the capacity to enjoy food is greater the more one eats). Under appropriate conditions, utility maximization resul ts in cycles of dieting and binging. [19] Rational addiction theory has been applied to the analysis of religious behavior ââ¬â see Iannaccone (1984, 1990) and Durkin and Greeley (1991). Iannaccone (1998) summarizes this approach. Utility depends on ââ¬Å"religious commoditiesâ⬠produced, the value of which depends on ââ¬Å"religious human capital. The stock of religious human capital depends on time and money devoted to religious activities in the past. These models have the following predictions, ââ¬Å"nearly all of which receive strong empirical supportâ⬠(Iannaccone, 1998, p. 1481): â⬠¢ Individuals tend to move toward the denominations and beliefs of their parents as they mature and start to make their own decisions about religion; â⬠¢ People are more likely to switch denominations early in life; â⬠¢ People tend to marry within religions; if they do not, one spouse is likely to adopt the religion of the other. D. Racial Profiling Law enforcement authorities in many jurisdictions have been criticized in recent years for racial bias in their choice of cars to search for illegal drugs and other contraband. [20] The fact that police are more inclined to stop and search cars driven by members of certain minority groups is well established. Knowles, Persico, and Todd (2001) develop a rational choice model that ââ¬Å"suggests an empirical test for distinguishing whether this disparity is due to racial prejudice or to the policeââ¬â¢s objective to maximize arrests. In their model, the typical police officer ââ¬Å"maximizes the total number of convictions minus a cost of searching cars. â⬠(p. 209) Motorists ââ¬Å"consider the probability of being searched in deciding whether to carry contraband. â⬠(p. 209) At least some motorists perceive a benefit to carrying contraband. If they do carry, their expected benefit is positive if they are not searched and negative (that is, there is a positive expected cost) if they are searched. The model implies that if police officers are not racially biased, the frequency of guilt among motorists conditional on being searched will be independent of race. 21] In their empirical analysis based on 1,590 searches on a stretch of Interstate 95 in Maryland between January 1995 and January 1999, Knowles, Persico, and Todd find support for this proposition. They interpret this result as ââ¬Å"the absence of racial prejudice against African Americansâ⬠(p. 212). The fact remains, however, that African Americans are searched more frequently than whites. If this does not arise from racial bias by police officers, then why does it occur? One possibility noted by the authors is that ââ¬Å"race may proxy for other variables that are unobservable by the policy officer and are correlated with both race and crime. Possible examples of such unobservables are the schooling level or the earnings potential of the motorist. â⬠(p. 212) While one may quibble with some elements of this study, for our present purposes the main point is that the rational choice theory, at least potentially, yielded implications that allowed the analyst to gain some insight (if not a final resolution) into the issue of racial profiling. E. Congressional Influence on Military Assignments Prior to the 1960s, economic theory tended to view politicians and other government officials (bureaucrats) as disinterested observers and regulators of economic activity. A group of economics led by Nobel Laureate James Buchanan then developed a branch of economics known as public choice theory, which views government officials as self-interested maximizers. Goff and Tollison (1987) take a public choice approach to gain some understanding of casualties in the Vietnam War. The typical soldier is assumed to prefer not to be placed in risky combat situations, and this preference is shared by the soldierââ¬â¢s family. A solider (or more likely his family) might therefore try to gain a low-risk assignment by asking for intervention in military decisions by his Senator or Representative. Senators and Representatives are assumed to desire re-election, which implies a desire to please their constituencies. The ability of a Senator or Representative to have this kind of influence, however, varies according to committee assignments, ties to the military/industrial complex, etc. Goff and Tollison assume that political influence depends on seniority, with more seniority implying more influence. Taken together, all these assumptions have the straightforward implication that soldiers from states with more senior (and hence more influential) Senators and Representatives should, other things equal, have experienced fewer casualties in Vietnam than soldiers from states with less senior (and therefore less influential) Senators and Representatives. Their empirical analysis (using data from January 1961 to September 1972) supports the hypothesis: In the House, the Mississippi delegation had an average seniority of 27. 7, while Hawaii had an average seniority of 61. . [A seniority ranking of 1 indicates the member had the highest seniority in his or her party. ] In terms of lives, this represents about 6 fewer war deaths for every 100,000 of population in Mississippi relative to Hawaii. Ceteris paribus, this difference in House seniority leads to a 55 percent higher casualty rate for Hawaii than Mississippi. â⬠¦ In the Senate, Arkansas had an average seniority of 6. 2, and Mary land had an average seniority of 45. 4. Other things equal â⬠¦, this difference leads to an 86 percent higher casualty rate for Maryland than for Arkansas. In terms of lives, this translates into about 7 more war deaths for every 100,000 of population in Maryland than in Arkansas. (pp. 319-20) In this case, the value of the rational choice approach is not so much in the fact that it yields surprising answers to a well-established question, but that it suggests a unique question to ask in the first place. It is by no means obvious that someone not thinking about self-interested Senators and Representatives would even think to ask the question addressed by Goff and Tollison. F. Ideology and Intransigence Roemer (1985) applies game theory to the analysis of political revolutions. Specifically, he presents a two-player game between ââ¬Å"Leninâ⬠and the ââ¬Å"Tsar. â⬠Leninââ¬â¢s objective is to maximize the probability of revolution, while the Tsarââ¬â¢s objective is to minimize that probability. As in any game-theoretic setting, when making decisions each player keeps in mind how the other player might react. Lenin tries to create revolution by lining up coalitions, where people are induced to join a coalition with the promise of income redistribution. The Tsar tries to prevent revolution by promising to punish anyone who participates in revolutionary activities (assuming the revolution attempt is unsuccessful). Increased penalties reduce the number of individuals who are likely to join the coalition but increase the revolutionary fervor of those who do. An individual will join a coalition attempting to overthrow the Tsar if the expected benefit to him or her of doing so exceeds the expected cost. There is of course some uncertainty about the outcome. Roemerââ¬â¢s results include the following: it is shown that various ââ¬Å"tyrannicalâ⬠aspects of the Tsarââ¬â¢s strategy, and ââ¬Å"progressiveâ⬠aspects of Leninââ¬â¢s strategy need not flow from ideological precommitments, but are simply good optimizi How to cite The Underwriting Challenges Facing P.S.V. Insurers in Kenya, Essay examples
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